Nomura says consumption turning a corner, paint worries fading, jewellery and FMCG stabilising

On Finding Alpha, Mihir Shah, Vice President, India Consumer – Equity Research Analyst at Nomura breaks down the major shifts shaping India’s consumption landscape — from leadership changes to competition cycles and easing sector headwinds.

Earlier this month, Shah upgraded both Asian Paints and Berger Paints in what the market calls a bold contrarian call. His reasoning: the big overhang came from fears that Birla Opus, backed by a ₹10,000-crore investment, would disrupt growth and margins. However, two years after launch, he says the disruption simply hasn’t materialised.

“The product prices are very similar to legacy players… dealer margins are only a shade higher,” he notes. Even during the aggressive launch phase, margins for Asian Paints and Berger dipped only 100–200 basis poi