Can U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik beat Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 2026 election for New York governor?

A new Siena College Research Institute poll released Tuesday shows Hochul’s favorability and job approval both down five points from September. However, she still has a large lead over both her Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, and Stefanik, a Republican candidate who officially launched her gubernatorial bid earlier this month.

Hochul currently leads Delgado, 56-16% in a Democratic primary, according to the poll of registered voters in New York state. In a general election, Hochul leads Stefanik by 20 points, 52-32%, down slightly from a 52-27% lead in September but up from August’s 14-point gap (45%-31%).

“Eight months out from primary day, Hochul has a commanding lead over

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