New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (left) and Rep. Elise Stefanik.

By Michael Mashburn From Daily Voice

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul still holds a sizable lead over Republican Congressmember Elise Stefanik in a potential 2026 matchup for New York governor, but the margin has tightened in recent months, new polling shows.

Governor’s Race

A Siena Poll released Tuesday, Nov. 18, shows Hochul ahead of Stefanik 52% to 32% among registered New York voters. The 20-point spread is down from 25 points in September and marks the closest the race has looked since summer.

Independent voters played a major role in the shift. They now favor Hochul 40% to 36%, compared to 43% to 25% in September, pollsters found. Stefanik’s support among Republicans also grew, climbing from 68% to 79%.

Democratic Primary Outlook

Despite the tightening general-election numbers, Hochul continues to dominate inside her own party. She leads Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 56% to 16% in a hypothetical Democratic primary. Siena found that 61% of voters remain unfamiliar with Delgado.

Favorability & Job Approval

Hochul’s ratings dipped slightly:

  • Favorability: 43% positive, 45% negative
  • Job approval: 52% approve, 43% disapprove

Stefanik’s favorability improved to 28% positive, 36% negative, up from 21% to 34% in September. Delgado sits at 20% to 20%.

When asked about 2026, 48% of voters said they want “someone else” as governor, compared to 42% who would reelect Hochul. Among the “someone else” group, 53% prefer a Republican, while 30% prefer another Democrat.

Direction of the State & Country

New Yorkers remain divided on the state’s trajectory.

  • 39% say New York is on the right track
  • 45% say it’s headed in the wrong direction

Views of the country are even more pessimistic:

  • 30% say the U.S. is on the right track
  • 62% say it’s going the wrong way

Nearly three-fourths of voters said they are worried about affording health insurance.

Policy Issues

The poll found wide splits on several topics:

  • Deportation efforts: Voters now say the state should oppose federal efforts to deport migrants living in New York, 48% to 42%. In May, voters supported those efforts.
  • Unlawful presence alone: By 53% to 36%, voters say immigrants should not be deported if their only offense is being in the country illegally.
  • Taxes: Taxing the wealthiest 5%: 60% support. Taxing large corporations: 60% support
  • Gas pipeline: After hearing arguments on both sides, voters supported approval of a proposed underwater gas pipeline off New York City, 45% to 33%.

Congressional Generic Ballot

Democrats hold a strong lead in a generic congressional matchup:

  • 55% of voters say they would vote Democratic
  • 32% would vote Republican
  • Independents split 40% to 35%.

The Siena Poll surveyed 802 registered voters statewide between Nov. 10 and 12. Click here to view the complete results.