The Bills and Texans meet under the lights on Thursday Night Football, and the numbers suggest we’re in for a far more intriguing matchup than the spread alone implies.

Buffalo enters as the 5.5-point favorite, powered by a Dimers simulation run that gives the Bills a 68% chance to leave NRG Stadium with a win . Josh Allen’s projection—232 passing yards with strong scoring probability on the ground or through the air—sets the tone for a Bills offense expected to control long stretches of the game. James Cook slots in as Buffalo’s most likely touchdown scorer, hinting at a game plan that leans heavily on their lead back in high-leverage moments.

Houston, though, shapes up as a live underdog rather than a placeholder. The model gives the Texans a 54% chance to cover the spread, with Davi

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