President Donald Trump has been floating a plan for $2,000 tariff dividend checks for weeks.

It’s true that Trump’s tariffs are bringing in more revenue for the federal government. And Trump has said he wants to direct some of that extra cash to Americans .

But how realistic is that plan? Are we really getting tariff dividend checks?

Online betting sites suggest the answer is no, according to Fortune .

One site, Kalshi, puts the odds of the checks happening at just 2%. And that’s not even at Trump’s suggested $2,000 level. Those odds reflect the chance of a $1,000 payment.

The odds are also 1% at another site, Polymarket, according to Fortune.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked about the checks in a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Future

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