Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has adopted a strong stance on China since her election last month. In her initial parliamentary address, she explicitly stated Japan's commitment to defending Taiwan against any potential Chinese invasion. This declaration has sparked significant diplomatic tensions with Beijing.

China has long asserted that Taiwan is not an independent nation but a breakaway province that will eventually be reclaimed. Over the years, Beijing has engaged in both diplomatic and military pressure against Taiwan, preparing for a possible invasion. Many analysts warn that, given China's growing military capabilities, a conflict over Taiwan could occur within the next decade. If Taiwan were to fall, China would gain control over the East China Sea and critical shipping routes that are vital to Japan.

Japan's southwestern islands currently serve as a barrier to Chinese naval access to the Pacific. However, if Taiwan were to be annexed, these islands could face increased military pressure from China, raising concerns about their security.

Historically, Japan has supported Taiwan's sovereignty but has maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity," which allows for deterrence of China without escalating tensions. Japan's constitution restricts military action to self-defense, but in 2015, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi's mentor, enacted a law that permits Japan to engage in collective self-defense under certain conditions.

During a recent parliamentary session, Takaichi was asked to define a "survival threatening situation." She responded that Japan would intervene if China imposed a naval blockade on Taiwan or attacked American vessels sent to assist the island. This marked a significant shift in Japan's policy, as it was the first time a sitting prime minister had made such explicit commitments regarding Taiwan.

Beijing reacted strongly to Takaichi's remarks. The Chinese consul-general in Osaka made a controversial social media post suggesting that Japan should be punished for its interference, which was later deleted. Following this, China's foreign ministry summoned Japan's ambassador, demanding a retraction of Takaichi's statements, which Japan refused.

In response, the Chinese military warned that Japan would face severe consequences if it intervened in a conflict over Taiwan. Additionally, China's embassy in Japan declared that any Japanese military action would be viewed as aggression, prompting a call for Chinese citizens to avoid travel to Japan due to alleged safety concerns.

As a result, Chinese state-controlled airlines have begun offering refunds for flights to Japan, leading to over half a million cancellations, which represents 40% of all booked tickets. This decline in travel has negatively impacted Japan's tourism sector, as approximately 25% of its tourists come from China, causing a drop in stock prices for tourism-related companies.