The Colts travel to Arrowhead on Sunday for a matchup that projects to be tight, fast-paced, and high-scoring. Kansas City enters as a 3.5-point favorite, backed by Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model giving the Chiefs a 62% chance to win at home. Patrick Mahomes is projected for 273 passing yards with Rashee Rice leading the receiving outlook at 77 yards, while Kareem Hunt carries both the highest first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown probability for Kansas City. With Oddsmakers posting a total of 49.5—and the model giving a 53% chance it goes over—the expectation is that both offenses will have opportunities to push the pace.

Indianapolis, though, matches up well statistically and enters with its own set of playmakers capable of keeping the game close. Daniel Jones is projected for 243 ya

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