WASHINGTON, D.C. — Canada is at a crossroads in its military procurement strategy as it considers whether to proceed with the purchase of F-35 fighter jets or explore alternatives like the Gripen. This decision comes amid ongoing pressure from U.S. leaders to increase military spending and contributions to NATO, a call that has persisted since the alliance's inception in 1949.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama encouraged Canada to enhance its global role, stating, "the world needs more Canada." In contrast, current President Donald Trump has been more direct, labeling Canadians as "freeloaders" and "delinquent" in their military contributions. This bipartisan sentiment in the U.S. underscores a long-standing expectation for Canada to bolster its defense spending.

In 2022, U.S. defense officials backed Canada’s decision to select the F-35, with plans to acquire 88 jets. However, political debates and reviews have resulted in only 16 jets being ordered so far. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Mark Carney initiated a review of the remaining 72 jets, citing concerns over reliance on U.S. defense amid escalating trade tensions and Trump's rhetoric about Canada being a "51st state."

As the review nears completion, the debate has intensified between Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and Saab’s Gripen. A leaked 2021 evaluation from the Department of National Defence indicated that the F-35 outperformed the Gripen in stealth and sensor capabilities, scoring 95 to 33 percent. Proponents of the Gripen argue for its advantages in Arctic operations, including shorter take-off distances and a promise from Saab to create up to 10,000 jobs in Canada.

However, some military experts warn that the Gripen could present logistical challenges. They emphasize that the fighter jet purchase should prioritize military effectiveness and operational independence rather than political considerations influenced by U.S. pressure.

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has expressed a desire for more economic benefits from the F-35, while also acknowledging Saab's job creation offer. RCAF Deputy Minister Stephanie Beck has highlighted the necessity of fifth-generation stealth capabilities, which only the F-35 provides. Philippe Lagassé, a procurement expert, suggested that Canada could consider a mixed fleet to maximize economic benefits, but cautioned that the feasibility and costs of Saab's proposal need thorough examination.

Richard Shimooka, a defense expert, criticized the focus on Gripen's job promises, arguing it overlooks the DND's evaluation results and prioritizes political motivations over military assessments. He described the claim of creating 10,000 jobs as "completely unrealistic," given that Gripen production currently supports only 4,000 to 5,000 jobs globally.

Chauncey McIntosh, VP at Lockheed Martin, noted that over 110 Canadian companies contribute to the F-35 supply chain, with each jet containing approximately $3 million in Canadian components. Lockheed Martin anticipates generating over C$15.5 billion in industrial value for Canada through the F-35 program.

The scale of production also favors the F-35, with over 1,200 jets currently in service compared to fewer than 400 Gripens. Speculation has arisen about a potential split buy, where Canada would invest in both aircraft types. However, experts warn that this could lead to higher long-term maintenance costs and operational delays.

Michael O’Hanlon, a foreign policy researcher, labeled a split buy as "easily the worst idea," arguing that Canada lacks the military budget to support such a strategy. He emphasized that reducing the number of each aircraft would increase training and maintenance costs, further straining Canada’s defense capabilities.

While Trump has not publicly commented on Canada’s decision, he has expressed frustration over Canadian choices in the past. Shimooka noted that American policymakers have long been frustrated with Canada’s defense spending, and a decision to opt for a different aircraft could provoke negative reactions from the U.S.

The review of Canada’s fighter jet purchases was expected to conclude by the end of summer, but a final decision from Carney remains pending. The Department of National Defence has stated that the review is ongoing, as Canada seeks to align its defense strategy with economic benefits for its businesses and workers.