Just over 10 years ago, a Russian Su-24 strayed across a sliver of Turkish airspace near the Syrian border—by Ankara’s account, for all of 17 seconds. The response was immediate and devastating. A Turkish F-16 fired a missile and the bomber plunged in flames, with one crew member shot dead in his parachute by Syrian rebels. President Vladimir Putin described it as "a stab in the back," but NATO affirmed its members’ right to defend their skies. The incident was jarring in its unambiguity.

A decade on, NATO in the Trump era looks a lot more ambiguous. In September 2025, three Russian MiG-31s loitered 12 minutes over Estonia before Italian F-35s shooed them out; Tallinn called it "unprecedentedly brazen." Poland said up to 23 drones crossed its border on September 9, prompting Article 4 con

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