Tariff revenues are dramatically falling short of initial White House expectations, generating roughly $100 billion less than projected, according to a recent analysis from Pantheon Macroeconomics. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted in August that tariffs would raise “well over half a trillion, maybe towards a trillion-dollar number,” but data compiled through November 25 implies that customs and excise taxes annualize to only $400 billion.

This shortfall stems from an Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) that is far lower than anticipated. The AETR is currently estimated at just 12%, falling significantly short of the near-20% widely expected earlier this spring. Even the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was surprised, reducing its estimate of the pre-substitution tariff rate to

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