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By Laurie Chen, Jessie Pang and Joyce Zhou
HONG KONG, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's government will press ahead with a "patriots only" legislative election scheduled for Sunday, despite doubts over turnout from a local population still reeling from the Chinese-run city's deadliest fire in decades that has killed at least 156 people.
The vote is seen by some analysts and residents as a test of legitimacy for the Hong Kong government as it tries to appease public anger over the fire amid an ongoing national security crackdown.
Analysts expect a heavy police presence and low turnout for Sunday's poll, the second since wide-ranging electoral reforms ensuring only pro-Beijing "patriots" could run for office were launched in 2021, after pro-democracy protests in 2019 that roiled the city.
"We must take a long-term view, move forward firmly, and steadily advance the normal functioning of society," John Lee, Hong Kong's chief executive, said on Tuesday.
"We must move forward before we can turn our grief into strength."
He said that going ahead with the election would enable newly elected legislators to move quickly to support post-disaster reconstruction and reforms in the wake of the fire.
Government-organised election forums resumed from Wednesday, after having been suspended since the fire last week. They are a rare space for candidates to debate policy and interact with the public. Political campaigning remains suspended.
"We have decided to stop campaigning in the traditional, colourful, flamboyant style but in a low-key manner. We have put away our banners," said Regina Ip, a lawmaker and chairperson of the New People's Party which has eight candidates running.
"The turnout rate is likely to be lower ... people are highly traumatised."
In Tai Po, the site of the blaze, Sunday's vote was far from the minds of mourners and locals still indignant over the government's response.
City officials said they would organise shuttle buses for affected residents to vote. An election banner for the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong party was draped outside the charred Wang Fuk Court complex.
"Honestly, it's infuriating. I think it lacks respect," said Trent Heung, a 37-year-old mourner who travelled to lay flowers before work.
"Everyone is still mourning and I really don't think anything else should be first priority except paying tribute and making sure all the victims and affected people are well taken care of."
Joyce Fong, 50, said locals remain angry about apparent failures in government oversight. Authorities said substandard flammable materials were used at the site of the blaze and have launched criminal and corruption investigations.
"The whole system is full of warning signs and failures. And yet they're still running elections? What's the point?" Fong said.
At least three people including former pro-democracy district councillor Kenneth Cheung and a student who launched a public petition demanding an independent probe into the fire have been detained by police since Saturday, two sources told Reuters. Both were since released on bail.
ELECTORAL REFORMS
Hong Kong's Legislative Council previously stood as a symbol of the "one country, two systems" framework designed to preserve democratic freedoms in the former British colony after it returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
But sweeping 2021 electoral reforms - the first major restructuring of Hong Kong's political system since 1997 - reduced the number of directly elected seats from 35 to 20 and introduced a national security vetting process for candidates.
Since the remaining 70 seats are chosen through small-circle elections, this effectively squeezed out opposition voices from the city's legislature.
Pan-democrat voters - traditionally making up about 60% of Hong Kong's electorate - have since shunned the elections, according to John Burns, emeritus professor of politics at Hong Kong University.
Voter turnout plunged from 58.3% in 2016 to a record low of 30.2% in 2021.
The number of registered voters for Sunday's polls - 4.13 million - has also dropped for the fourth consecutive year since 2021, when a peak of 4.47 million people were registered.
"I don't anticipate turnout will be much above last time. If it's lower, that would reflect people's anger and resentment," Burns told Reuters, adding it was difficult to predict whether pro-Beijing voters would mobilise on Sunday.
"From the perspective of the central government (in Beijing), they want legitimacy (through the elections). ... One way you can claim it is if turnout is high."
Publicly advocating an election boycott was also criminalised as part of the reforms, which came after a citywide national security law was imposed by China in 2020.
LOW-KEY CAMPAIGNS
Many candidates have avoided focusing their campaigns on the tragedy or calls for government accountability.
Seven candidates representing the constituency that includes Tai Po, as well as construction-related sectors, did not respond to Reuters requests for comment on the fire.
"I fear accepting an interview with your organization during the election period to discuss the fire might violate election regulations," wrote Julia Lau Man Kwan, a candidate representing the architectural sector, in an email.
Gary Chan Hak Kan, a legislator from the Democratic Alliance for Betterment party, referred Reuters to a party statement.
Hong Kong "has a constitutional responsibility to elect a new Legislative Council in a timely manner to avoid a vacuum period" since the legislature's current term ends December 31, it said.
(Reporting by Laurie Chen, Jessie Pang and Joyce Zhou; Additional reporting by Anne Marie Roantree and Clare Jim; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
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