On Tuesday afternoon, CNN’s Harry Enten stared at a graphic of Tennessee’s 7th District and delivered a warning. Even a narrow Republican win there, he told viewers, would be “a bad sign” because Donald Trump had carried the seat by double digits every time he was on the ballot. An Emerson poll had the GOP nominee Matt Van Epps up just two points over Democrat Aftyn Behn, and Enten noted there was an 80-plus percent chance of a double-digit swing to the left—part of a broader pattern of Democrats overperforming in special elections since Trump’s second term began.

By night’s end, Enten’s gloomy scenario for Republicans had basically materialized. Van Epps held the deep-red seat, but his roughly nine-point win was a dramatic comedown from former Representative Mark Green’s 21-point margin.

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