Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn in a special election in Tennessee 7th district last night.

And that’s where the good news for Republicans ended.

Van Epps looks headed to a 9-point win over Behn in a district that Donald Trump carried by 22 points last year.

And had Democrats nominated someone better fitted for the seat—Behn is an outspoken liberal with a long track record of public statements that didn’t sit well with voters in a deep red district—there is a very real possibility that the GOP could have lost.

So, what does it all mean? I have thoughts!

Firstly, special elections are special. This was the only House race on the ballot. It drew considerable national attention and spending. (Both sides and aligned outside groups spent millions on TV ads.) In the 2026 m

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