This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox.

Once again, national Republicans cannot spin away the raw math.

Tennessee Republican Matt Van Epps’ victory Tuesday night in a gerrymandered district was technically a win for the red team, but it was way tighter than it should have been and way costlier than anyone ever thought.

Van Epps’ 9-point margin of victory over Democrat Aftyn Behn would be much more impressive if the district hadn’t broken for Republicans by 22 points just a year earlier. The outcome has left some GOP players fearing next year’s midterms might be even worse than they had already been anticipating and without a clear strategy for how to regroup.

Initially, House Republicans were pr

See Full Page