Canada is facing a critical juncture in its national security strategy as the war in Ukraine enters a challenging phase. The conflict, once seen as a test of Western resolve, has revealed significant weaknesses in Ukraine's military position. Territorial losses in eastern and southern Ukraine are increasing, and U.S. officials privately acknowledge that Kyiv's situation is unlikely to improve. As Washington indicates the need for a negotiated settlement, the outcome of the war will largely be determined by the United States and Russia, leaving Canada and Europe with limited influence over the final terms.

This situation serves as a warning to Western democracies, including Canada, which have long believed that their preferred outcomes were assured by historical trends. The war has highlighted the limitations of this belief, exposing Europe's inability to sustain its military efforts without American leadership. Internal divisions, hesitance, and chronic underinvestment in defense have hindered Europe's response. Furthermore, the conflict has demonstrated that values alone, without the backing of military strength, cannot deter a determined adversary.

Canada's contributions to the war effort have been consistent with its recent history, providing equipment, funding, and training while affirming commitments to allies. However, these efforts have not changed the fundamental military balance. The reality is that Ukraine has been outmatched in terms of manpower and resources, and the West has not generated the necessary industrial response to alter the course of the war.

As Canada reflects on its role, it must confront uncomfortable truths. While the country aspires to influence global events, it has allowed its own defense capabilities to deteriorate. The armed forces face challenges in recruitment, training, and sustainability. Procurement processes are slow, and military capabilities are aging. Defense spending remains low compared to allied standards, leading to a situation where strong statements lack the means for enforcement. The war in Ukraine has dispelled the illusion that geography alone guarantees security.

The conflict underscores the importance of military power in shaping global dynamics. Alliances are crucial, but they cannot replace national strength. Even close partners must prioritize their own interests, and democratic nations can no longer assume that the United States will always support the international order.

Canada's national security vision must be grounded in four key realities. First, while the United States is Canada’s closest ally, its global posture is evolving due to domestic pressures and economic constraints. Canada must invest more in its own defense capabilities. Second, Europe has demonstrated both courage and vulnerability. Although its support for Ukraine has been significant, internal divisions and limited capacity have made it reliant on U.S. assistance, serving as a cautionary example for nations that neglect their defenses.

Third, Russia is likely to emerge from the conflict emboldened. It has adapted to losses, mobilized its industry, and endured hardships, with ambitions that are unlikely to diminish. As a northern power, Russia's actions directly intersect with Canada’s interests in the Arctic. Fourth, China continues to rise as a dominant industrial power, presenting long-term challenges that Canada is currently unprepared to address. The assumptions that have guided Canada’s China policy are no longer valid, and a coherent strategy is needed.

Canada requires leadership that is transparent about the costs of national security. The country must focus on rebuilding its armed forces, restoring its defense industry, modernizing procurement processes, and enhancing military readiness. A serious nation cannot rely on others for its security. The eventual resolution of the Ukraine conflict may not yield the desired outcome, but it provides clarity about the increasingly competitive and dangerous global landscape. It serves as a reminder that goodwill is not a strategy and calls for Canada to strengthen its national defense.