James Madison Dukes quarterback Alonza Barnett III (14) looks to pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.

The Troy Trojans (8-4) and No. 19 James Madison Dukes (10-2, 7-1) meet Friday in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Kickoff from Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, Virginia, is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Troy vs. James Madison odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Troy heads into the Sun Belt title game having won 7 of its last 9, closing the regular season with victories over the Georgia State Panthers and Southern Miss Golden Eagles to secure the West Division. QBs Tucker Kilcrease and Goose Crowder have split duties under center, with Kilcrease throwing for 1,414 yards and 9 TDs and Crowder passing for 1,118 yards and 11 TDs. RB Tae Meadows anchors the run game, while WR RaRa Thomas, WR Tray Taylor, and WR DJ Epps lead a deep receiving group. Defensively, Troy allows 26.1 points per game (PPG) with steady production across the front 7.

Troy won the Sun Belt title in both 2022 and 2023, beating the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Appalachian State Mountaineers in those games. Now they're back in the 2025 championship, aiming for a third conference crown in four seasons.

James Madison rolls into the Sun Belt title game on a 10-game win streak after closing the regular season with a dominant road win over Coastal Carolina. The Dukes sit at 11-1 and 8-0 in conference play, powered by a run game averaging more than 230 yards per contest. QB Alonza Barnett III has thrown for 2,440 yards and 20 TDs, while RB Wayne Knight anchors the offense with 1,051 rushing yards. Defensively, JMU allows just 17.5 PPG.

They will play this game with coach Bob Chesney still on the sideline, even after he accepted the UCLA Bruins job. UCLA is allowing him to finish the season, including a potential CFP run. JMU has already lined up his replacement, hiring former Florida Gators coach Billy Napier to take over once the Dukes’ postseason ends.

James Madison is still looking for its first Sun Belt championship win since joining the league in 2022. The Dukes have dominated the East Division—winning titles in 2022, 2023, and 2025—and now face Troy with a chance to close out a perfect season and finally capture the conference crown.

James Madison and Troy last met on Sept. 16, 2023, when the Dukes went on the road and won 16-14 as 2.5-point underdogs. The Under 46.5 also cashed in that matchup.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Troy at James Madison odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:59 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Troy +1250 (bet $100 to win $1,250) | James Madison -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Troy +23.5 (-110) | James Madison -23.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Troy at James Madison picks and predictions

Prediction

James Madison 35, Troy 10

Moneyline

PASS.

The Dukes (-3000) are going to win this game going away, but you can't bet this moneyline. Take your wager to the spread.

Against the spread

BET JAMES MADISON -23.5 (-110).

I’m laying the points with James Madison here, even with the line this big. The Dukes have every reason to show out — they’re still hanging around the CFP conversation, and if a path opens up, style points will matter. That alone makes me think they won’t ease off the gas at any point.

Troy’s a solid team and has covered in 7 of its last 9, but this matchup is a different animal. JMU is top 10 nationally in scoring offense and scoring defense, and that balance shows up every week. They can run it, they can throw it, and Troy’s defensive front hasn’t exactly been great against the run. That’s a tough recipe against a team that already dominates time of possession and strings together long, efficient drives.

Even with the coaching news — Chesney heading to UCLA after the postseason — I don’t think it hurts them here. If anything, it feels like extra motivation to finish the job. And when you look at how JMU handled Sun Belt opponents all season, it’s been blowout after blowout. Seven of their 8 league wins were by double digits, and several were by 3-plus scores.

Add in the cold weather and the home-field edge in Harrisonburg, and this sets up even better for the Dukes. Barnett can run if the passing game needs simplifying, Knight has been outstanding, and Troy’s offense just isn’t built for a track-meet comeback in these conditions.

Yeah, it’s a big number — but JMU has been covering these exact kinds of numbers all year. I’m riding with the Dukes to roll and grab the Sun Belt title in convincing fashion.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 46.5 (-110).

James Madison brings one of the nation’s best defenses, ranking top-10 in yards per play allowed, while Troy has been steady defensively and has stayed under the total in 7 of 12 games, including 4 straight. The Dukes dominate time of possession and limit opponent drives, and Troy’s inconsistent offense should struggle against JMU’s pressure. This profiles as a lower-scoring game.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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