There are only so many ways the College Football Playoff can come together with only nine games left in the regular season.
We could have a chalky finish, with favorites such as Texas Tech winning to keep fringe contenders such as Brigham Young from bringing chaos to the final rankings.
Or we could have a dramatic close to the regular season, allowing teams like Brigham Young and Miami to come in just under the wire to make the 12-team tournament.
Over three months after we got things started, conference championship games will determine who gets to play for the national championship and where. Here are the scenarios for what could happen in Sunday’s final rankings:
What happens if Ohio State beats Indiana?
Ohio State will remain the No. 1 seed and complete a wire-to-wire run atop the playoff rankings. The Buckeyes would get a bye through the opening round and then play the winner of the No. 8 and No. 9 game in the quarterfinals.
While the SEC championship could impact things, Indiana would likely fall to No. 4 if Georgia and Texas Tech win but still earn an opening-round bye.
What happens if Indiana beats Ohio State?
Just flip the scenario above. Indiana would climb to No. 1 and Ohio State would fall to No. 3 or No. 4, again depending on the SEC.
What happens if Georgia beats Alabama?
The Bulldogs would become the No. 2 seed. That’s the easy part.
Where Alabama lands might depend in some part on the final score, though this week’s one-spot climb to No. 9 in the penultimate rankings strongly suggests the Crimson Tide will hang onto an at-large berth regardless of the result. That’s in part because the Tide beat Georgia in the regular season.
The most likely fallout from a loss is Alabama dropping one spot to No. 10, which would have the benefit of avoiding rematches between the Tide and Oklahoma and Notre Dame and Texas A&M.
But if Alabama loses and Brigham Young beats Texas Tech to win the Big 12, the Tide might fall out of the tournament entirely while Notre Dame hangs onto the final at-large spot.
What happens if Alabama beats Georgia?
This wouldn’t change the makeup of the bracket as much have a heavy impact on seeding.
A second win against Georgia and a conference championship would vault Alabama to the front of the line in the SEC. The win would offset the Tide’s loss to Oklahoma and move them ahead of Texas A&M, Mississippi and the Georgia. All four would still earn an at-large berth, and Georgia would likely be ranked second among SEC teams.
The question is whether Alabama would jump as many as five spots to secure one of the top four seeds. While a big leap, that wouldn’t be surprising.
Let’s start with the assumption the Tide are ranked first among the five SEC playoff teams. If you then give the No. 1 seed to the winner of the Big Ten, the No. 2 seed to Texas Tech and the loser of the Big Ten to No. 3, Alabama’s competition for the No. 4 seed would be Oregon.
That’s a comparison the Tide would win by virtue of having the same number of wins, much better wins overall against a much tougher schedule and a conference championship.
What happens if Texas Tech beats BYU?
Texas Tech would be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. The Red Raiders could stay at No. 4 if Ohio State loses a close one to the Hoosiers. BYU would not have an at-large case with a second loss to Tech and would be left out of the playoff.
What happens if BYU beats Texas Tech?
The Cougars nab an automatic bid and would climb ahead of at least Notre Dame and maybe Alabama and Oklahoma, too. But don’t look for BYU to jump ahead of Texas Tech unless it’s a blowout that negates a 29-7 loss in Lubbock last month.
Tech would drop from this week’s No. 4 ranking and could land behind Texas A&M, though the Red Raiders have better wins and might’ve played a tougher schedule overall than the Aggies.
What happens if Virginia beats Duke?
This is the result the ACC is hoping for. Virginia would earn an automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Cavaliers were No. 17 in the penultimate rankings and would earn the No. 11 seed in the bracket.
What happens if Duke beats Virginia?
OK, so here’s where things get dicey.
Duke would be the one guaranteed ACC representative. For now, Miami seems likely to end up boxed out of an at-large bid despite beating Notre Dame.
Should BYU lose, the Hurricanes would climb No. 11 in the final rankings and potentially be just behind the Irish. That would be highly controversial and would require a detailed explanation from the committee as to why they ignored the head-to-head tiebreaker when taking into account similar results such as Oklahoma’s win against Alabama.
Here's the problem for the ACC in the case of a Duke win: The playoff grants automatic spots to the five highest-ranked conference champions, not each of the Power Four winners and then the best team from the Group of Five.
Duke did not appear in the penultimate rankings. Sun Belt front-runner James Madison debuted at No. 25. It’s easy to see Duke coming in sixth among conference champions – behind the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, American and Sun Belt – and the ACC being shut out of the playoff altogether.
What happens if James Madison beats Troy?
Combined with a Duke win, this could send JMU to the playoff despite coming in behind the American winner among Group of Five teams in the final rankings. The guaranteed Group of Five berth will be given to the winner of Tulane against North Texas.
The Dukes will not fall out of the rankings with a solid win against Troy – they’re favored by more than three touchdowns as of Wednesday – and the Blue Devils shouldn’t climb into the rankings, either, thanks to five losses.
What happens if Troy beats James Madison?
This game is played on Friday night, so the ACC will know the story before kickoff on Saturday. If Troy beats JMU and Duke knocks off Virginia, the Blue Devils will earn the automatic bid as the fifth highest-ranked conference winner.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How CFP will be impacted by every conference championship game scenario
Reporting by Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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