For the first time this century, child deaths under age 5 will likely rise. Why?

One of the crowning achievements in global health is at risk of coming undone.

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of children who die before they hit their 5th birthday dropped by half — from nearly 10 million deaths a year to under 5 million deaths a year.

What brought about this remarkable progress? It's the result of many improvements in global health, including the widespread rollout of childhood vaccinations. The decline in child deaths slowed during the height of the COVID pandemic as health systems were disrupted but it did not reverse — until now.

Estimates suggest 2025 will be the first year this century that child deaths have gone up instead of down.

In 2024, 4.6 million children died before hitting age 5. That number is projected to rise by just over 200,000 — to an estimated