U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a roundtable discussion on the day he announced an aid package for farmers, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 8, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Donald Trump's return to the White House may have begun with projections of strength and voter support, but now, according to an analysis from The Hill, his "political mortality is all too clear" as he grapples with a second-term "vibe shift."

The piece, from senior staff writer and veteran political analyst Niall Stanage, argued that Trump's presidency is "in a very different political spot compared with 12 months ago," when he and many allies claimed that his victory represented an overwhelming mandate from voters.

"Back then, Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) allies were euphoric about his convincing victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris. Their excitement was not just about his winning the White House," Stanage wrote. "It was fueled by the hope that Trump had forced a shifting of the tectonic plates of national politics."

This "new and perhaps enduring coalition" of voters included notable shifts towards Trump from Latino voters and younger voters, particularly young men. Despite that early confidence, "the picture is very different now" for the president, as discontent over his handling of the economy is hailed as the main shortcoming, among many others, tanking his approval ratings and sending those same voter demographics back to the side of Democrats in huge numbers.

Stanage noted that you cannot "count Trump out" quite yet, owing to his still fervent base of supporters and his retention of more influence than the typical "lame duck" president. However, with Democrats putting up big victories in off-year elections, protestors flooding into "No Kings" protests, his approval ratings sinking to near all-time lows and once staunch allies like Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoning him, Trump is now much weaker and suffering more politically than his opponents might have hoped.

While he might have retained enough power over the summer to pass his widely unpopular "One Big Beautiful Bill" spending package, his grip on Republicans in Congress is notably slipping as the year wraps up. This was most notable during the votes to force the release of DOJ files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein, which Trump had rigidly opposed for months. All but one of the GOP House members voted for the release bill, while the Senate passed it with unanimous consent. While Trump tried to change his tune in the eleventh hour, the sense of defeat was unavoidable.

"Above all, the sense is solidifying that not even Trump — a one-of-a-kind figure to his fans and detractors alike — is immune to the laws of political gravity after all," Stanage wrote, later concluding that, "As the first year of his second term comes to a close, Trump’s political mortality is all too clear."