With President Donald Trump exerting not-so-subtle pressure on the US Federal Reserve to ease rates and financial markets pricing in a high probability of it, it is not surprising that the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) has obliged by trimming the policy rate by 25 basis points in its latest review. FOMC has made the usual noises about the need “to achieve maximum employment with an inflation rate of 2 per cent over the long run”. However, the truth is that it has taken its latest policy decisions in a data vacuum.

With an extended federal government shutdown lasting 43 days over October and November, critical data releases in the US essential to rate actions, have been unavailable. The Q3 GDP release has been put off and the latest available data for Q2 2025 (April-June) showed th

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