In Common Cause v. Rucho , Chief Justice Roberts pointed to the significant reforms to redistricting that had been taking place in the states, as a way of asserting that the federal courts and constitutional doctrine were not the only avenues to address the issue. As we are now seeing with the prospect of mid-decade redistricting, a state-by-state approach might turn out to be an unstable equilibrium.
If red states like Texas go ahead with mid-decade redistricting, and blue states like CA and NY decide to adopt measures that respond in kind, there will now be questions about what will happen after the 2030 Census and round of redistricting. Will the states with commissions go back to using them or will they attempt to take measures, such as new voter initiatives, to repeal the reforms t