The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting above-normal activity for the remainder of the season. The agency now estimates a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of below-normal activity. This marks a slight decrease in confidence from the initial forecast issued in May, which indicated a 60% chance of above-normal activity.

NOAA forecasts a total of 13 to 18 named storms for the season, with five to nine expected to develop into hurricanes. Additionally, two to five of these hurricanes are anticipated to reach major hurricane status, classified as Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or more. As of now, the 2025 season has recorded four named tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. The next name on the list is Erin.

Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season sees its first hurricane around August 11. Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, emphasized the importance of preparedness, stating, "No two storms are alike. Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during, and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring."

Colorado State University (CSU) also released its updated forecast, maintaining a prediction of a slightly above-average season. CSU anticipates 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. However, the university noted a lower-than-normal confidence in its outlook due to significant variations in wind speed and direction over the Caribbean Sea observed in June and July.

The updated forecasts from both NOAA and CSU are influenced by several key weather and climate factors. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic have risen above normal, which can facilitate hurricane formation. Additionally, the current neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are expected to persist during the peak of the hurricane season, further contributing to the likelihood of storm activity.

Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, stated, "Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions."

As the hurricane season progresses, experts continue to monitor conditions closely, with the peak activity period typically occurring from mid-August to late October.