Prime Minister Mark Carney's administration is facing significant challenges in trade negotiations with the United States, as softwood lumber tariffs have surged to 35%. This increase, announced late Friday, marks a substantial setback for Canada's lumber industry, which has already seen tariffs rise from 8.05% to 14.54% under the Biden administration, and then to 20.56% under the Trump administration.

British Columbia's Forestry Minister Ravi Parmar criticized the latest tariff hike, calling it "absurd and reckless." However, the Carney government has not publicly responded to the increase. Since Carney took office, tariffs on various goods have escalated. Tariffs on steel and aluminum have jumped from 25% to 50%, while copper now faces a 50% tariff. Additionally, automotive products deemed non-compliant with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) are also subject to a 50% tariff, and general exports not covered by CUSMA now face a 35% tariff.

During his campaign, Carney assured Canadians that he had the experience to negotiate effectively with U.S. President Donald Trump. "I know the President, I’ve dealt with the President in the past in my previous roles when he was in his first term, and I know how to negotiate," Carney stated. However, the current situation has led to a shift in his messaging. He now emphasizes that "no deal is better than a bad deal" as negotiations stall and tariffs continue to rise.

Carney's stance on tariffs has evolved since he portrayed them as an existential threat to Canada during the election. He recently noted, "We’re in a situation right now where 85% of our trade with the United States is tariff-free." This statement, while partially accurate, contrasts with his earlier rhetoric that fueled fears about U.S. trade policies.

The dynamics of the negotiations have changed significantly since March, when U.S. officials described Canada as a top priority for a trade deal. Now, American interest appears to have waned, with reports suggesting that Carney's team is not engaging in genuine negotiations but rather making demands.

As other G7 countries secure trade agreements, questions arise about Canada's approach. Carney has not communicated with Trump since June 26, the day he announced Canada would proceed with a Digital Services Tax. Following that announcement, Trump halted all discussions with Canada, leading to further tariff increases and a recent jobs report indicating a loss of 51,000 full-time jobs in the previous month.

Carney's campaign slogan, "a plan beats no plan," now faces scrutiny as the effectiveness of his strategies comes into question amid rising tariffs and stalled negotiations.