Updated at 10 a.m. on Aug. 10, 2025.

The large disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic - officially tagged Invest 97L - is heading west in the general direction of the Caribbean. It has found a gap in the Saharan dust, so this one has the best chance of organizing into a tropical storm or hurricane of any system we've tracked this season.

The National Hurricane Center now puts the odds that the disturbance will organize into at least a tropical depression this week in the high range. The system will have to fight off the Saharan dust for the next few days, at least, which should slow the intensification process.

However, the strong consensus of the various computer forecast models is that the system will strengthen when it passes near or just north of the northeastern Caribbean i

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