The rise of artificial intelligence is reshaping the balance of power in the world. Early internet pioneers envisioned a future where technology would empower individuals, helping them escape ignorance, poverty, and oppression. For a time, this vision seemed to materialize. However, the emergence of advanced algorithms has led to a new era of centralized control and surveillance.

As AI technology evolves, it may strengthen closed political systems while undermining open democracies. This shift raises questions about the future of transparency, pluralism, and democratic checks and balances. Two decades ago, a concept known as the "J-curve" was introduced, illustrating the relationship between a country's openness and its stability. Mature democracies were seen as stable due to their openness, while consolidated autocracies thrived in closed environments. Countries caught in between often struggled under pressure.

Initially, the world experienced a decentralizing telecommunications revolution that connected people and provided unprecedented access to information. This shift empowered citizens and bolstered open political systems. Events like the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the Arab Spring seemed to signal an unstoppable wave of global liberalization. However, this trend has reversed.

The decentralizing forces of information technology have given way to a centralizing data revolution. This new landscape is characterized by digital surveillance and algorithmic manipulation, concentrating power in the hands of a few entities—governments and tech companies—that control vast amounts of data. As a result, citizens have become subjects of data collection rather than active participants in their governance.

Countries like Hungary and Turkey have restricted press freedoms and politicized their judicial systems. In China, President Xi Jinping has consolidated power, reversing decades of economic openness. The United States, once a leading proponent of democracy, has shifted to exporting tools that can undermine democratic processes.

The rapid advancement of AI is expected to exacerbate these trends. AI models, trained on personal data, will soon possess a deeper understanding of individuals than they have of themselves. This capability will allow a small number of data controllers to exert even greater influence over public perception and behavior.

As AI technology matures, both closed and overly open societies may become increasingly fragile. The J-curve may transform into a U-shape, indicating that as control over advanced AI models consolidates, autocracies may become more resilient while democracies weaken. In this scenario, the Chinese Communist Party could leverage its extensive data resources and surveillance systems to solidify its political power.

Meanwhile, the United States may evolve into a more centralized, technocratic system dominated by a select group of technology leaders prioritizing their interests over those of the public. This trend could lead to a similar concentration of power in both systems, diminishing the role of citizens and paving the way for countries like India and various Gulf states to follow suit.