The great Medicare Advantage contraction appears set to continue

Shakespeare famously wrote in The Tempest, “What’s past is prologue,” to express how events of the past set the stage for developments in the present.

That sentiment was clear for health insurers in the second quarter, in which companies that slashed Medicare benefits and cut loose unprofitable members last year enjoyed apparent immunity from the tidal wave of medical costs burying their peers.

Humana and CVS were the only insurers to raise their annual profit expectations following the second quarter, bucking a broader downturn. Four other major payers — UnitedHealth, Elevance, Centene and Molina — either lowered their profit expectations or established new floors well below previous targets.

(The other major publicly traded insurer, Cigna, reaffirmed its previous outlook . Cigna doe