The Boston Red Sox remain in control of their own postseason fate after dropping two of three games over the weekend to the San Diego Padres. But playoff baseball at Fenway Park is far from a sure thing this fall.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield ranked all of the clubs contending for playoff spots and broke teams up into tiers. The Red Sox landed in Tier III: “Have work to do.” Tier I includes the locks and Tier II includes the teams that should get in.

The key to Boston’s postseason plans is the pitching staff.

“While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA,” Schoenfield wrote Monday. “ Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan

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