Sam Burns plays a shot from a bunker on the seventh hole during the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament in Memphis, Tennessee.

The second round of the FedExCup Playoffs takes place this week with the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. The top 50 players in the FedExCup standings have advanced to this point, with only the top 30 proceeding to the Tour Championship next week.

Before the first round tees off on Thursday, we search for the best value prop bets for the BMW Championship from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy is back this week after being the only player to skip last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, but the field is only 49 players due to Sepp Straka's withdrawal on Monday for personal reasons. Scottie Scheffler, No. 1 in the world and on the points list, is the favorite to win at +240, with McIlroy next at +750. Every other player has odds of +1800 or longer this week.

Caves Valley last hosted a PGA Tour event in 2021 when the BMW Championship was held there. Since then, it has undergone a significant renovation and redesign, converting the course to a par 70 and adding more than 60 yards to the overall length, bringing it to 7,601 yards. Green complexes have been completely rebuilt, with tees and fairways being changed, as well. Patrick Cantlay won here in 2021 at 27-under par, beating Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff.

BMW Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. ET.

Ludvig Aberg (+300)

Aberg has been fairly inconsistent throughout the season, but in his last 3 starts he's finished T-8, T-23 and T-9. He doesn't have a top-5 in that span, but this is a smaller, 49-player field at a course that should suit his game well.

Xander Schauffele (+333)

Schauffele needs to play well this week in order to advance to the Tour Championship, sitting 43rd in the standings. He typically excels in the FedExCup Playoffs and this is the perfect time for him to turn things on and make a push late in the year after getting off to a slow start. He hasn't finished worse than T-22 in his last 3 starts.

Tommy Fleetwood (+275)

Rather than betting Fleetwood to win, take him to finish in the top 5 instead because a Sunday meltdown could be coming again. While he's bound to win at some point, it's a safer bet to go with a top-5 finish, which he's had in 2 of his last 4 starts.

BMW Championship – Top-10 picks

Sam Burns (+225)

Burns came in eighth the last time the BMW Championship was held at Caves Valley, firing rounds of 64 and 65 on Thursday and Saturday. With how well he putts, he could go really low again this week.

Akshay Bhatia (+250)

Bhatia is another guy who can catch fire at any moment, as evidenced by his round of 8-under to start last week in Memphis. He never got anything going in the final 3 rounds. but he showed the ability to contend yet again.

Sungjae Im (+300)

Im finished alone in third place here 4 years ago, ending the week 23-under par. He's riding some momentum after tying for 17th in Memphis last week, and if Caves Valley yields low scores again like it did in 2021, Im tends to thrive in those conditions.

BMW Championship – Top-20 picks

Brian Harman (+138)

It's hard to find much value for a top-20 in a 49-player field, but Harman offers some with his upside. He finished T-29 here last time in 2021 and just tied for 22nd last week in Memphis.

Harry Hall (+110)

Hall has been quietly great all year, finishing no worse than T-28 since the CJ Cup in May when he tied for 33rd. He has 13 top-25 finishes in 13 starts, coming in 20th or better 7 times in his last 10 starts.

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BMW Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Justin Thomas (-105) vs. Cameron Young (-118)

Young has a lot of momentum following his win 2 weeks ago but Thomas is the better value here at -105. He's someone who could make a serious run at the Tour Championship because he can heat up in a hurry.

BMW Championship – Top Asian

Sungjae Im (+225)

Im is the underdog in this market at +225, behind Hideki Matsuyama (+138) and Si Woo Kim (+188). Im finished third here in 2021 and just finished T-17 last week, so he could be in for a strong performance this weekend.

BMW Championship – Top European

Ludvig Aberg (+550)

Aberg has the third-best odds in this market behind McIlroy (+220) and Fleetwood (+450). He's a long, accurate hitter who should have success at Caves Valley, a course that players will have minimal experience at in the past.

BMW Championship – First-round leader

Sam Burns (+3300)

Burns was tied for the lead after opening with a 64 here in 2021 and though he only finished eighth that week, he did shoot 65 on Saturday – another impressively low score.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: 2025 BMW Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Reporting by Cameron DaSilva, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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