As the planned summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump approaches, many experts express doubts about its potential to yield positive outcomes for Ukraine. Historical precedents suggest that meetings between powerful leaders often fail to produce meaningful resolutions, particularly when it comes to territorial disputes.

The history of nations being divided or restructured by foreign leaders is fraught with challenges. For instance, Poland has experienced numerous partitions throughout its history, disappearing from the map for over a century before re-emerging after the fall of communism. Similarly, the Napoleonic Empire, which once dominated Europe, collapsed within a decade, leading to a return to its original borders.

After World War I, Britain and France reconfigured Europe, creating new nations while dismantling empires like the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian. This reshaping led to long-lasting tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and contributed to the rise of German resentment that sparked World War II. The Soviet Union, formed in the chaos of the early 20th century, lasted only 70 years before its dissolution allowed former Soviet states to regain independence.

The upcoming summit is expected to assess Putin's willingness to pursue peace in Ukraine. However, analysts believe that his intentions are unlikely to change. Putin's vision for Ukraine appears to involve its transformation into a client state, similar to Belarus, rather than a sovereign nation with aspirations for democracy and integration into Western alliances like NATO and the European Union.

Experts argue that Putin's goals have remained consistent since the onset of the conflict three years ago. He has shown little regard for the significant loss of Russian troops and has taken drastic measures against dissent, including the assassination of political rivals and the abduction of Ukrainian children. With no substantial internal opposition or public pressure, Putin seems to have little incentive to compromise.

The Russian populace has historically been accustomed to authoritarian rule, leading to a culture of obedience and fear of reprisal for dissent. Those who challenge Putin often face dire consequences, further entrenching his power. Additionally, Putin enjoys economic support from China, which bolsters his position on the global stage.

Given these factors, many observers remain skeptical about the potential for the summit to bring about a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.