OTTAWA — A recent poll reveals that Canadians are divided on how to approach trade negotiations with the United States, particularly regarding retaliatory tariffs. The Leger/Postmedia survey indicates that 45 percent of Canadians support an aggressive stance, referred to as “elbows up,” which would involve imposing counter-tariffs on new U.S. border levies, despite the risk of further retaliation from the Trump administration.

Conversely, 41 percent of respondents prefer a more measured response, focusing on securing a new trade deal, even if it means accepting some tariffs on Canadian goods. This division presents a challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who must balance these conflicting opinions as he navigates the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policy, according to Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger.

Enns noted that there is a noticeable shift in public sentiment. He stated, "I think there’s been a bit of a tempering, a bit of a diminishment of the ‘elbows up’ aggressive approach. It’s still very present, and you know, not to be ignored. But I certainly would say that there’s a stronger sort of view now starting to show up in Canadian opinion that says, ‘Well hold on here, maybe we ought to think this through, let’s not be hasty.’"

This change in attitude contrasts sharply with a poll from six months ago, where 73 percent of respondents supported retaliatory tariffs against any U.S. border levy on Canadian goods. Enns suggests that many Canadians, particularly those aged 55 and older, are reconsidering their earlier strong patriotic sentiments as the trade conflict continues.

The shift may also reflect Carney's evolving stance. During the Liberal leadership race in February, he endorsed dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs. However, since taking office, he has refrained from retaliating against U.S. tariffs affecting key Canadian industries such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Recently, he even suggested that Canada might consider removing some tariffs on U.S. imports if it benefits Canadian industries.

Enns remarked, "When we first started to feel the brunt of President Trump’s trade aggression, Canadians were much more bullish, much more aggressive in terms of retaliation. The temperature has come down and you’ve got maybe a bit of sober second thought from Canadians saying that we have to figure out a way out of this and it’s not going to be with a ‘I hit you, you hit me, I hit you back’ kind of thing."

Despite the divided opinions on tariffs, Canadians are not overwhelmingly in favor of opening specific industries to U.S. competition. Approximately half of the respondents expressed willingness to allow American-owned airlines to operate domestic routes in Canada or permit U.S. telecommunications companies to function within Canada. However, only 33 percent are open to relaxing supply management rules that protect the Canadian dairy industry to allow more U.S. products.

Enns commented, "I would not say there’s a groundswell of support and a sort of blank cheque for Carney, for the prime minister, to open up negotiations on these things. But it is kind of interesting that there’s about half the population that, all things equal, think ‘I’m open to hearing what that would look like.’"

The poll also indicates that Carney's Liberal government may have reached a peak in popularity. After a period of rising support since the April 28 election, the Liberals' approval rating has dropped two points to 46 percent since July 7. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, hold 36 percent, while the NDP, under interim leader Don Davies, stands at six percent. Overall satisfaction with the Carney government has slightly decreased to 54 percent.

Enns cautioned that it is too early to determine if Carney's initial popularity has waned, but he noted that the data suggests the prime minister may have reached his popularity ceiling. He stated, "We may have seen the high watermark for Liberal support, and as we head into the fall and some of these issues start to become more pointed… I would imagine that would be an interesting juncture for the government. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a very gradual narrowing of that gap between Liberals and Conservatives come the fall."

The Leger poll surveyed 1,617 respondents through an online platform from August 1 to August 4. Online surveys do not have a margin of error due to the lack of random sampling.