Khamzat Chimaev during weigh-ins for UFC 319 at Radius Chicago Aug. 15.

In a 5-round middleweight championship bout in the main event, Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev meet Saturday at UFC 319 at United Center in Chicago. The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+), with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+), followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Their bout is expected to start around 12:15 a.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Du Plessis (23-2-0) | Chimaev (14-0-0)

Du Plessis defends his title for the third straight time. He topped Sean Strickland for the middleweight strap at UFC 297 with a split-decision win, and he successfully defended it against Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 in Aug. 2024. At UFC 312, he posted a unanimous-decision victory over Strickland in a rematch.

Chimaev gets his crack at the belt, as he has set himself up for the shot with 8 straight wins since joining the company. He is coming off a Round 1 submission win over Robert Whittaker last time out in Oct. 2024. Since arriving at the UFC, he has 6 finishes in 8 fights. Although, he has ended up going the distance twice in the past 4 outings. Still, neither of those fights were 5-round battles, only 3 rounds.

The South African champ holds a slight, 1-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter has a 6.12 significant strikes landed per minute, to 5.36 for the challenger. Chimaev has been pinpoint with those strikes, posting a 70.87% mark, to just 50.60% for the champ. Chimaev has managed a 4.31-to-2.55 takedown average advantage, with the difference in accuracy percentage in the category rather negligible. Chimaev has a 2.77 submission average, while Du Plessis has managed a 0.73 mark.

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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Du Plessis +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Chimaev -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Total Rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over: -105 | Under: -125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +225 | No -325)

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The champ faces his most difficult test yet, as the challenger has yet to lose in his entire career across all competitions. It's time for Chimaev (-250) to ascend to the top of the division, but you can't risk 2 1/2 times your potential return. So, let's get a little more specific.

Chimaev is a fighter that knows how to get the fight to the canvas quickly, and when he does, it usually doesn't end well for the opposition. While it's been a while since Du Plessis has tapped, losing via guillotine at EFC Africa back on Aug. 30, 2014 against Garreth McLellan, if there is a weak spot in the champ's game, the ground game is it.

Du Plessis has a 2.55 takedown average, which is pretty strong, and he is 50.0% on those takedowns, as far as accuracy. And, the champ has a 0.73 submission average. However, it would be in his best interest to avoid going to the ground with Chimaev, who is like a boa constrictor when he gets his opponent up against the fence.

Take CHIMAEV BY SUBMISSION (+125) at plus-money for the best value.

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Over/Under

No (-325): Fight to go the distance? is too risky at more than 3 times your potential return. There is no way to justify risking that kind of money on a straight up bet, and it isn't a great idea to toss it into a multi-leg parlay, either.

Instead, consider a rounds block instead. Take CHIMAEV BY SUBMSSION IN ROUND 2 (+650) and CHIMAEV BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 3 (+1200) for a solid value. Yes, you'll lose one of the ends, even if he gets the job done by submission in Rounds 2-3, but you'll still be well ahead, especially with a Round 3 victory.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC 319: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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