Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) in action against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The Toronto Blue Jays (73-52) and Pittsburgh Pirates (52-73) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is set for 6:40 p.m ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Blue Jays vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Blue Jays won 2 of 3 last season

The Blue Jays' 3-game winning streak was snapped Sunday in a 10-4 loss to the Texas Rangers as -113 home favorites, as the Over (7.5) hit. SP José Berríos was hit hard (4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K), and Toronto’s offense came only via home runs by C Alejandro Kirk, 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a 2-run shot by DH George Springer.

The Pirates’ struggles continued Sunday with a 4-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs, marking their seventh defeat in the last 8 games. Pittsburgh lost as +164 road underdogs, pushing on the 7-run total. RF Bryan Reynolds and 3B Nick Gonzales both collected multiple hits, while C Joey Bart had a 2-run double in the sixth inning.

Blue Jays at Pirates projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Paul Skenes

Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA) is making his 25th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 142 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 4-1 loss against the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
  • 2025 road stats: 4-5, 3.48 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Pirates: 1-3, 5.74 ERA (47 IP, 30 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 10 appearances (8 starts); last in 2021

Skenes (7-9, 2.13 ERA) is making his 26th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 148 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 14-0 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
  • 2025 home stats: 4-4, 1.70 ERA (79 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 11 starts
  • Has never faced the Blue Jays

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Blue Jays at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Pirates -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) | Pirates -1.5 (+210)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Blue Jays at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 3, Blue Jays 2

Moneyline

BET PIRATES (-120).

The Pirates should feel confident with Skenes back on the mound Monday at PNC Park. The young stud has been nothing short of dominant in his last 3 home starts, going 3-0 with 0 ER allowed, just 13 hits surrendered, and 23 strikeouts over 18 innings. His presence gives Pittsburgh exactly what they need to snap out of their recent struggles.

The Pirates have been a far better team at home this season, sitting 5 games above .500 at PNC Park compared to 26 games under on the road. Their pitching has been especially strong at home, with a 3.53 team ERA—seventh best in MLB—thanks in large part to Skenes’ dominance.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are just 5-5 in their last 10 road games, making them a vulnerable opponent. Given Skenes’ form and Pittsburgh’s overall home strength, the Pirates are in an excellent spot to grab a much-needed win on Monday night.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I don't like the odds on the run line and will keep my wager to the moneyline.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7 (-115).

Skenes’ dominance at home has been well-documented, but Gausman has been just as effective on the road lately. Over his last 3 road starts, he’s gone 1-1 while allowing just 4 ER across 18 innings. With both starters in strong form, runs will be tough to come by Monday. The Pirates are 2-0-1 to the Under in their last 3 games, and the Under has also cashed in 6 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs. With elite pitching on display, this matchup shapes up as a low-scoring affair where the Under looks like the smart play.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect