Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent visit to Kyiv is believed to be a response to Canada's exclusion from a recent White House meeting involving NATO leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Joe Varner, a defense policy expert and senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, suggested that Canada's declining influence in global affairs may have prompted Carney's surprise trip to Ukraine on Monday.

"The government was struck by the fact they weren’t invited to Washington," Varner said. He previously served as policy director for former defense minister Peter MacKay. "I think that, in part, drives the prime minister’s trip to Ukraine."

This visit marked Carney's first official trip to Ukraine and began a nearly week-long European tour focused on defense issues. Varner emphasized the importance of Canada's support for Ukraine, stating, "We can certainly contribute to the Ukrainian need. They’re looking for almost $1 billion per month from NATO allies to support their war effort, so it’s good that Canada stepped up and provided aid to Ukraine."

Canada's absence from the high-profile meeting, which included leaders from the U.S., the U.K., Germany, Finland, France, and Italy, raised concerns about its standing among NATO allies. Varner noted, "Canada is not viewed as a reliable ally by a lot of our NATO friends, and certainly not by the United States."

In his speech in Kyiv, Carney announced a $2 billion defense package aimed at assisting Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russian forces. More than $1 billion of this aid is designated for purchasing military equipment from the U.S. for Ukrainian troops. The remaining funds will support other military needs, including drones and electronic warfare capabilities, as well as joint investments between Canada and Ukraine.

This new spending initiative aligns with Canada's recent decision to meet NATO's 2% defense spending benchmark, reversing previous policies under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that had led to underfunding of the military.

Carney also indicated that Canadian troops could potentially be deployed to Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached. However, Varner cautioned that this may be more complicated than it sounds. "It’s easy to say that we can contribute troops, and I suspect that if there’s a peace agreement Canada would be there, but with the state of the Canadian Forces, it’s stretching the limit," he said. "(Canada) lacks people, lacks basic combat equipment that most western NATO armies have, and we would be taking people from somewhere else in the system where they’re needed to do that — as things stand now, we’d probably have to pull people out of Latvia."