A man wearing a Santa Claus costume holds a U.S. flag as he attends a rally in support of U.S. President Donald Trump, on the day Trump meets with Russia's President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, in Midtown Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025. REUTERS/Nathaniel Wilder

Republican registration numbers are up, but the number of these new applicants is tiny compared to the legion of President Donald Trump’s swing voters who might stay home in 2026, reports CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein.

Despite the redistricting battle going on between California and Texas, it is swing voters who still decide the balance of power, said Brownstein, just as they did last year when 30 million people who voted in 2020 decided to sit it out last November. But unlike the traditional voter switching between parties at every election, the big decider these days, said Brownstein, appears to be indifference — and that indifference is working against Republicans next year.

CNN “This Morning” host Audie Cornish asked Brownstein to comment on reports of increasing numbers of Republican registrations in many states.

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“People are looking at that and saying ‘this is bad for Democrats,’” Cornish told Brownstein.

Brownstein admitted that the Democratic image “is probably weaker now than it's been at any point since the years before Bill Clinton's election,” however the number of people who are loosely attached to the political system “is still bigger than” than the trickle of new Republican registrants.

Trump's improved performance among voters of color, particularly non-college voters of color in 2024, was notable, said Brownstein. However, the Pew Research Center noticed the share of Biden 2020 voters who are Hispanic, Black or Asian who stayed home in 2024 “dwarf the number who switched to Trump,” even in 2024.

“Swing [are deciding elections] more by staying home than by switching party,” Brownstein said, “and that dynamic really adds uncertainty to a midterm election when turnout is lower and you don't really have a good handle on who will turn out — except that it is likely that a lot of those low propensity voters who fueled Trump in 2024 will not be there in 2026.”

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