NOAA's temperature outlook for September through November, showing warmer temps predicted in the darker shades.

By Joe Lombardi From Daily Voice

If you're getting set for sweater weather with Labor Day weekend marking the unofficial close of summer, the just released three-month long-range outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center may come as a surprise.

Bottom line: expect a fall that’s anything but ordinary.

Residents across the Northeast, Atlantic Corridor, and Appalachians can expect a warmer-than-normal stretch from September through November, according to the center's newly-released forecast.

The new outlook shows a strong chance for above-average temperatures across New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Maryland.

 The odds are especially high in New England, where the probability of a milder fall is among the highest in the country.

NOAA’s maps reveal that while September may start off with typical autumn conditions, October and November are likely to tip the scales, pushing the three-month average well above normal for the season.

For those hoping for crisp, chilly days and early leaf color, the forecast suggests a slower transition. Warm spells could linger, delaying the classic fall feel and possibly extending the growing season for gardens and farms.

Precipitation, meanwhile, is expected to be close to average for most of the region. The outlook shows “equal chances” for above or below normal rainfall in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, meaning no strong signal for either wet or dry conditions.

The only exception is a slight lean toward wetter weather along the southern Atlantic coast, but the seven-state region should prepare for a typical mix of rain events.


The seasonal precipitation outlook through November.

The seasonal precipitation outlook through November.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

NOAA’s fall forecast highlights a national trend toward milder weather, with the Northeast and Atlantic Corridor standing out as some of the most likely areas to experience a warmer-than-usual season.

So, while pumpkin spice may be in the air, the chill might take its time arriving.