Mark Carney's visit to ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) in Kiel, Germany, on Tuesday confirmed that TKMS and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean Co. are the leading contenders to supply 12 submarines for Canada's Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). Carney's trip included stops in Ukraine, Poland, and Germany, reflecting Canada's commitment to revitalizing its defense capabilities and industrial base. This initiative also highlights Canada's aim for strategic independence from the United States while strengthening ties with other Western allies.

The submarine procurement is one of the most significant in Canada since the Cold War. It will shape the country's ability to protect its sovereignty in the Arctic, a region that is becoming increasingly contested geopolitically. Additionally, this project is vital for rebuilding Canada's defense industrial base, which has been limited despite the 2010 national shipbuilding strategy. Currently, Canada has only three shipbuilding yards in Halifax, Quebec, and Vancouver, none of which can construct submarines.

Canada's past experiences with submarine procurement have been challenging. In 1998, Canada acquired four Upholder Class diesel-electric submarines from the U.K., which were later renamed the Victoria Class. These submarines faced numerous issues, including a serious fire during transit and ongoing reliability problems, leading to difficulties in maintaining a continuous at-sea presence. As a result, Canada has relied on the U.S., U.K., and other NATO allies for Arctic defense.

In 2021, Canada felt sidelined when Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. announced the AUKUS partnership, which aimed to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. This move raised concerns in Ottawa about Canada's military posture in the Arctic, especially as the U.S. has criticized Canada's defense capabilities.

While the U.S. Virginia Class submarines and the upcoming AUKUS Class may not align perfectly with Canada's needs, the AUKUS agreement also includes opportunities for technological and informational transfers in areas like cyber and quantum computing. Canada is looking to engage in these developments.

The recent announcement indicates Canada's plan to acquire up to 12 diesel-electric (SSK) hunter-killer submarines, with the first expected to enter service in the 2030s, by which time the current Victoria Class will be outdated. Canada faces the dual challenge of addressing urgent defense needs, particularly in the Arctic, while ensuring that this procurement helps rebuild its defense industrial base.

Both TKMS and Hanwha's proposed submarines are advanced options. TKMS's Type 212CD variant is compatible with NATO operations, as it is already used by the German and Norwegian navies. Hanwha's KSS-III model has the potential for vertical Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), a capability that few non-nuclear navies possess. However, since Canada lacks the capacity to build these submarines domestically, the project will initially rely on off-the-shelf procurement. Both companies have indicated plans for future maintenance agreements, but the initial phase will be entirely dependent on external sources.