A setback for Iowa Republicans on Tuesday night is fueling fresh speculation that Democrats could have an electoral edge in 2026 , though strategists caution the race, a special election for the state Senate, might be an outlier and not part of a new trend.

Operatives in both parties agree that low-turnout races do not always reflect the electorate in statewide elections — particularly in states like Iowa, which used to be considered a swing state but has trended reliably red over the last decade.

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But since the 2024 election ,

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