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Democrats in Iowa and across the country have been trumpeting the news of Catelin Drey’s special election victory to the state Senate, arguing it’s a clear sign that red-state voters are ready for a change from Republican control.
Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said Democrats are feeling "elated" after the Aug. 26 victory, which broke Republicans' Senate supermajority.
"It was a hard-fought battle, and it’s another step in the right direction," Hart said. "It’s giving people hope that voters recognize that things are not going in the right direction under Republican control in the state and that it’s time for change."
Drey's victory in Senate District 1 in Woodbury County is the latest in a string of four special elections this year in Iowa where Democrats have significantly overperformed compared with the 2024 presidential election.
It has helped stoke Democrats' optimism on their chances in next year’s midterm elections, where they hope to flip seats in the Republican-dominated state and across the country.
But political experts say it's difficult to draw clear conclusions from special election results, where turnout is lower and members of one party may be more motivated to vote than another.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball, an election forecaster, said it's "unrealistic" to assume Democrats will overperform Vice Presidential Kamala Harris' margin by 20 percentage points in next year's midterms — as Drey did in her special election victory.
"But I think directionally it’s probably suggestive," he said. "It’s just a question of how much less red is Iowa in 2026."
Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann criticized national Democrats, who he said were "desperate" for a victory in Iowa, for flooding resources to the state.
"National Democrats were so desperate for a win that they activated 30,000 volunteers and a flood of national money to win a state senate special election by a few hundred votes," he said in a statement. "If the Democrats think things are suddenly so great again for them in Iowa, they will bring back the caucuses."
4 Iowa special elections, 3 Democratic Party wins, 2 Senate flips
Democrats have been pleased with their special election performances so far this year, which include flipping two Iowa Senate seats, coming close to flipping a Republican-held House seat and comfortably retaining another House seat.
Democratic state Sen. Mike Zimmer won Senate District 35 in eastern Iowa in January by 4 percentage points, just a few months after President Donald Trump carried the district by 27 percentage points. Democrats were able to improve their percentage of the vote by 16 points, while Republicans' share fell by 15 points.
Drey won her seat by 10 percentage points after Trump won it by 11 percentage points the year before, with each party's percentage of the vote swinging by about 10 points.
It was a similar story in the two special elections for the Iowa House.
Hart said Democrats "got such a big shot in the arm" when Zimmer flipped his Senate seat in January.
"Something’s happening," she said. "And I think many things are happening. Good people are stepping up to run. People are motivated to do the work that it takes to get them across the finish line. And our voters are recognizing that it’s time for change, that under Republican rule here, under Republican leadership, this state is not going in the right direction."
But Republicans maintain a firm grip on state government in Iowa, with a 33-17 majority in the Iowa Senate, a 67-33 supermajority in the Iowa House and control of the governor's office.
Kondik said the special election wins are something tangible the Iowa Democratic Party can point to at a time when "Democrats are looking for positive stories to tell."
"They’re not necessarily predictive, and they probably are skewed by Democrats just having better turnout patterns in these races," he said. "But again, there’s a world in which Democrats would be getting crushed in these races along the lines of the 2024 presidential election results, and that would tell the opposite story."
Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said Democrats face challenges, including poor polling numbers. But positive special election results could help encourage strong candidates to run next year, when a high-profile governor's race and congressional races will be on the ballot.
"When you get something like this like a special election where they actually win again, that gives them some hope," he said.
Smaller electorate for special elections makes comparisons difficult
The Senate District 1 special election saw about 24% voter turnout among the registered voters in the district, according to the Woodbury County Auditor's Office.
The 7,621 voters who cast ballots in the race are a little more than half the 13,956 people who participated in the 2022 election, when Republican former Sen. Rocky De Witt defeated Democrat Jackie Smith.
Iowa's other special elections this year have all drawn less than half the number of voters who showed up in 2022.
"The big hesitation for me is just that the turnout, even compared to a 2022 midterm baseline, is just smaller," Kondik said.
Kondik said special elections can sometimes benefit "the party that's angrier." Often that's the party that doesn't control the presidency, he said.
"It’s also the case that the Democratic coalition has gotten smaller in terms of size but is also more composed of higher education voters who tend to be higher turnout voters," he said. "So it’s kind of an apples and oranges comparison even to a midterm turnout, let alone a presidential."
Who was motivated to show up? And what issues motivated them?
Drey said the top issue she heard on the campaign trail was affordability, including for housing, child care and health care. And she campaigned on more funding for public education.
Her opponent, Republican Christopher Prosch, campaigned on eliminating Iowa's income tax, as well as adding more energy infrastructure and opposing eminent domain.
Both candidates had support from their state parties and had the resources to advertise.
Drey raised $165,000 and received nearly $88,000 worth of in-kind support from the Iowa Democratic Party, while Prosch raised $20,000 and received more than $160,000 of in-kind support from the Iowa GOP.
But while the candidates' focus was local, voters may have also been motivated by federal issues.
Hart said Democrats have been energized since Trump regained office, and that's resulting in more energy among voters and more candidates stepping up to run.
"Ever since Donald Trump started in with his shock and awe program when he started his administration here, Democrats have been very much motivated," she said.
Gary Leffler, a West Des Moines resident and Republican activist, said he and other Republicans in his circle were alarmed by the election result.
He said Democrats were all in on the race, and he worried that Republicans didn’t treat it with the same urgency.
“If we continue this, Iowa will be a blue state in eight years,” he said.
He said his biggest concern about the race is whether the MAGA base came out to support Prosch and whether those same folks will show up or sit out the 2026 midterm election.
“Where are the Trump voters? Will they show up without Trump on the ticket?” he said. “That is probably the number one question I have for nearly every Republican leader.”
Des Moines Register Chief Politics Reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel contributed to this report.
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on X at @sgrubermiller.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Democrats 'elated' by special election wins. What does it mean for the 2026 midterms?
Reporting by Stephen Gruber-Miller, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
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