A group of Labor MPs is advocating for Australia's next major climate target to align with the recommendations of the Climate Change Authority (CCA). The CCA is expected to provide its guidance on a 2035 emissions target soon. This cross-factional group, which includes members from both the left and right factions of Labor, is pushing for a target that falls within the CCA's suggested range.

The CCA's chair, Matt Kean, has been considering a target between 65% and 75%. However, recent global developments, including the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and a change in government in Queensland, have led to a reassessment of this advice. Kean requested additional time to evaluate these changing circumstances at the end of last year.

Reports indicate that the government is leaning toward a lower target for 2035, emphasizing the need for practicality. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, speaking in Honiara, stated that the government aims to set a target that is achievable while ensuring energy reliability. "It's not a matter of just plucking figures out of the air. We want to make a decision that is achievable as well and that takes into account the need for energy reliability," Albanese said.

As the Coalition grapples with its own climate commitments, Albanese noted that increasing ambition is essential for credibility among Australia's Pacific allies. Last term, the Albanese government set an emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030, based on projected reductions from policies introduced during the 2022 election. A target in the 50% to 60% range would align with the positions advocated by business groups, including the Business Council of Australia (BCA). The BCA recently warned that a target exceeding 70% could jeopardize hundreds of billions of dollars in exports.

Albanese acknowledged the BCA's report during a dinner event, reinforcing the idea that serious climate action is necessary for credibility in the Pacific region. However, this stance may not satisfy some climate advocacy groups, which support a target of net zero emissions within ten years and argue that the 2035 target should be in the 70% range.

Australia is also competing with Turkey to host COP31, the next international climate conference. While Australia has significant support from member states, a consensus is required. Most countries have yet to submit their 2035 targets, although Canada and New Zealand have set theirs at 45% to 50% and 51% to 55%, respectively.

Current projections suggest that Australia will achieve a 51% reduction in emissions by 2035 without any changes in ambition. The government is expected to announce its target before Albanese travels to New York for the UN General Assembly, where countries will formalize their Nationally Determined Contributions for 2035. Under legislation enacted by the Albanese government, a commitment to a specific figure cannot be made until the CCA's advice is received. As of late yesterday, that advice had not yet been delivered.