College Football Playoff projections, predictions for 12

Sep 20, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) celebrates with Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Jake Maikkula (69) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

If last season proved anything, it's never too early to begin projecting what the College Football Playoff bracket might look like.

So, roughly a third of the way through the 2025 college football season, it's worth asking: Who will make the 12-team playoff this year?

While the CFP selection committee won't unveil its final rankings until Sunday, Dec. 7 — the first ones won't be unveiled until Tuesday, Nov. 4 — there still are ways to project what the 12-team field will look like.

Defending national champion Ohio State, the top team of the Week 5 US LBM Coaches Poll, remains in the driver's seat for the 12-team CFP field. Ryan Day's team is 3-0 on the season and returns from its Week 4 bye with a cross-country flight to Washington in Week 5.

Indeed, if the CFP mirrored the latest Coaches Poll, the Big Ten and SEC both would represent a large presence in the projected playoff if the season ended after Week 4. They would have eight of the 12 spots in the field and two teams each with first-round byes.

Here's the latest CFP predictions after Week 4 of the college football season:

College Football Playoff rankings projection

Seedings based on Week 5 US LBM Coaches Poll. Bolded teams represented highest-ranked conference champions.

Ohio State (Big Ten) *
Penn State (Big Ten) *
Georgia (SEC) *
LSU (SEC) *
Oregon (Big Ten)
Miami (ACC)
Texas (SEC)
Florida State (ACC)
Texas A&M (SEC)
Oklahoma (SEC)
Iowa State (Big 12)
Memphis (American)

* Denotes first-round bye

The format for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff is different from last year's. The most notable change to the format is seeding: Teams will be placed exactly as they are ranked in the final selection committee top 25, allowing for automatic qualifiers outside the top 12 to move into the field.

Using the Week 5 Coaches Poll as an example, No. 13 Iowa State (Big 12) and unranked Memphis (American) — the latter of which got the most votes of non-Power Four teams — would move to the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the CFP by virtue of being two of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Notably, that also means first-round byes are no longer reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions, a departure from last year.

CFP bracket projection after Week 4

If the season were to end today, here's a look at what the matchups in the first-round would be:

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Memphis
No. 6 Miami vs. No. 11 Iowa State
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Oklahoma
No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

From there, the winner of Oregon-Memphis would face No. 4 LSU in the quarterfinals, while the winner of Miami-Iowa State would face No. 3 Georgia (setting up a potential reunion of Miami quarterback Carson Beck and his former team).

The winner of the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma would meet up with No. 2 Penn State in the quarterfinals, while the winner of Florida State-Texas A&M would meet up with No. 1 Ohio State.

Here is what the projected bracket would look like after the first-round games:

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 FSU/No. 9 Texas A&M (Rose Bowl)
No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 7 Texas/No. 10 Oklahoma (Orange Bowl)
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Miami/No. 11 Iowa State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 5 Oregon/No. 12 Memphis (Cotton Bowl)

CFP 2025-26 dates, schedule

The entire 12-team CFP field will be released on Sunday, Dec. 7. First-round action for the CFP will begin on Friday, Dec. 19 at the site of one of the four teams — i.e., No. 5 through No. 8 — that earn a first-round home game.

Here is a list of full dates for the 2026 College Football Playoff: