Background.

As a fan, the Diamondbacks have ignited my optimism that the Diamondbacks will reach the playoffs.

Strangely, comparing the Diamondbacks and the Mets (who lead the race for the NL’s third Wild Card berth), the odds of reaching the playoffs show that from May onward, the Mets were much more likely to reach the playoffs. The gap never narrowed by a significant amount until after the Mets lost on Sunday. [Part of that change was due to the Reds are having a good run.] After that loss the Mets had eight times the chances as the Diamondbacks. The following graph overlays the teams’ odds provided by FanGraphs.

A different way to compare the teams is by comparing wins and number of games played. It shows a spectacular run, at two points (with 152 games played and with 156 games pla

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