Earth’s climate and its water are inextricably linked—one cannot exist without the other. As the climate undergoes unprecedented, human-driven change, the global water system is changing too.

While this link is well-established, it’s difficult to predict exactly when and where extreme water shortages will occur as a result of climate change. This uncertainty inhibits decision makers’ ability to prepare for these catastrophic scenarios. A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications aims to fill that knowledge gap by estimating the timing and likelihood of extreme water scarcity events—also known as “day zero drought” events—around the world.

“Day zero basically would be the time when the region or the city runs out of water,” co-author Christian Franzke, a professor

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