Russia’s brinkmanship with Nato allies threatens widening the war in Ukraine to the Baltic, the Balkans and beyond. The probing and testing by multiple drone and manned aircraft missions in the past fortnight are the beginning of a new phase.

The core European allies like Germany, France and the Nordic powers are now taking the lead in support for Ukraine – and their semi-detached European partners Spain, Italy and the UK will be required to help, too, however reluctantly.

That this could turn into a hot war confrontation between Russia and Nato allies is a strong possibility within months. The current wave of probes and provocation could easily lead to miscalculation and military accident.

This week Estonia demanded a meeting of Nato’s parliament , the North Atlantic Council,

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