British Columbia is the only province in Canada to experience a population decline between April and June, according to new data from Statistics Canada. The province's birthrate remains the lowest in the country, highlighting the effects of changing federal immigration policies on B.C.'s demographics.

Statistics Canada reported that B.C.'s population decreased by more than 2,100 people in the second quarter of 2025, following a drop of 299 in the first quarter. This decline comes despite the arrival of over 12,700 new immigrants and 1,600 people moving from other provinces this spring. However, these gains were offset by a loss of 14,700 non-permanent residents, many of whom left as their work and study permits expired.

Werner Antweiler, a business professor at the University of British Columbia, noted that the current population drop is a consequence of a surge in temporary residents over the past three years. He described this year as “abnormal” but not unexpected, stating, “This year is abnormal,” and added that B.C.'s population is likely to stabilize next year. Historically, immigration has contributed to modest population growth in the province, compensating for its low birthrate.

B.C.'s birthrate stands at 1.02 children per woman, a slight increase from 1.0 in 2023. In comparison, Canada’s overall fertility rate has reached a new low of 1.25, placing the country among those with “ultralow fertility” rates, alongside nations like Japan and South Korea. Antweiler expressed confidence that Canada will continue to offset its birth deficit through immigration, which he believes will help maintain population stability and economic activity.

This spring, Canada welcomed 103,507 new immigrants, marking the highest number for a second quarter since 1957. However, the number of non-permanent residents fell significantly, with 32,000 fewer study permit holders, 12,600 fewer work permit holders, and 19,000 fewer individuals holding both work and study permits.

B.C. Premier David Eby recently called for a “serious and adult conversation” about migration levels, linking high youth unemployment, low wages, and strained social services to the influx of temporary foreign workers. Antweiler pointed out that the federal government has recognized issues within the temporary foreign workers program, which he described as a “back door” to the points system that typically governs Canadian immigration. This system prioritizes skilled immigrants, but Antweiler warned that opening the door too wide has led to more residents than the country can accommodate, particularly in urban areas.

Housing demand in B.C. has outpaced supply, contributing to rising costs. David Ley, a professor emeritus at UBC, noted that high housing prices are driving residents out of the province. He stated, “In the past, (housing costs) would drive people to the suburbs or Abbotsford. But now prices are still high in Abbotsford, Kelowna, all over, and this is driving people out of the province.” Ley also linked housing affordability to B.C.'s low birthrate, explaining that expensive living conditions lead to delayed family planning.

The average age of mothers at childbirth in Canada has been steadily increasing, reaching a record high of 31.8 years in 2024, compared to 26.7 years in 1976. Ley suggested that B.C.'s slowing economy may also be prompting residents to relocate to Alberta, which saw a population increase of 19,268 in the second quarter, including 6,200 from other provinces. He remarked, “During downturns in the B.C. economy, it is common that there is a seepage of workers to Alberta.”