The recent NAEP test results have caused major angst among people who track student achievement. NAEP stands for the National Assessment of Educational Progress and is typically given at two-year intervals to a random sample of US students.

NAEP, often referred to as “the nation’s report card,” started with measuring skills in reading and mathematics for every state. For example, the following graph shows the national reading scores since 1992, when the exam was first offered. In addition to the green median line the chart shows the 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles.

This graph illustrates several of the reasons for concern. For one, after steadily increasing over time, the median turned downward after 2017, and especially after 2019. At the time this downward trend was widely attri

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