Winter is coming and the early long-range forecast anticipates its going to be a typical western New York affair — plenty of cold weather and lake effect snow .

“It looks like it’s probably going to be a good lake effect season,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-range expert.

For Rochester, the recent pattern of a warm start to the season is expected to be followed by a colder January and February. Pastelok said he thinks there will be a few warmups in late January and February, but winter will be colder in the back end.

“There are a lot of things that are pointing towards some cold air diving through the Plains states,” Pastelok said. “It may not be the same extent on the extreme that happens in the Plains, but we get some of that cold from time to time getting pulled east

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