Early in the season, it's typical to hear a lot about the pace of certain stats. "Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is on pace for 178 catches and 2,100 yards," that sort of the thing. But most of the time when you see "on pace for" stats, you have no idea of which teams and players were on pace for similar things in the past.

Over time, performances usually regress toward the mean: Teams and players that started hot slow down, and those that initially struggled tend to improve. We don't want to compare a performance after four games to what others have done in full 16- and 17-game seasons. We should compare it to what was done in the same span.

I do that with DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), explained further here . I've gone back and reran every season since 1978 to see what

See Full Page