Nov 9, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks up at the clock at the end of the second half against the Florida Gators at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

It last happened in 2003, two years removed from Steve Spurrier’s heyday of tormenting all things Manning.

Eli Manning’s two victories with Ole Miss over Florida in the 2002-03 seasons were against embattled Gators coach Ron Zook. More than two decades later, Eli’s nephew, Arch, gets a shot at another embattled Florida coach.

And another payback for uncle Peyton Manning’s only blemish in a brilliant college career at Tennessee: three losses in three games against bitter rival Florida.

But Texas quarterback Arch Manning has more pressing issues. At the front of the line: trying to win his first SEC road game, and playing better than he has over the first month of the season.

This week’s SEC games against the spread, with predicted winners in bold:

Kentucky at Georgia (-20.5): There are any number of reasons to question how this season plays out at Georgia, but none more unnerving than a defense that can’t get consistent pressure and struggles to cover in the back end.

The return of QB Zach Calzada gives UK hope, but this just feels like a get-right game for Georgia. After a week of high intensity practices, Georgia gets serious in a game it can’t afford to lose.

Texas at Florida (+5.5): Florida coach Billy Napier says he sees “a look” in the eyes of struggling QB DJ Lagway. Meanwhile, Lagway says when it “pops” at Florida, it’s going to really pop.

I’m not exactly sure what any of that means, but I do know this: Florida has one of the 15 best defenses in college football. As long as Lagway avoids turnovers, the Gators will have a chance in the fourth quarter to steal a big SEC win.

Vanderbilt (+10.5) at Alabama: This is a different Vanderbilt team, one that is far more dangerous than the group that fashioned the 2024 breakout season. QB Diego Pavia is a legit thrower now, and the offense is more multiple.

There are still problems on defense. Vandy isn’t going to line up and trade blows with Alabama. If, that is, the Tide backs up last week’s physical win over Georgia with a similar effort.

That lack of consistency has been Alabama’s problem under coach Kalen DeBoer, and if it returns Saturday against Vanderbilt, we’ll see another shocking moment: the first back-to-back victories for Vanderbilt in the series since 1955-56.

Kent State at Oklahoma (-45.5): This is all about QB Michael Hawkins Jr., and how much he learned in the past nine months of practicing behind injured QB John Mateer (thumb), and working within the structure of first-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.

Because if Arbuckle can do for Hawkins what he did for Mateer in his first season as a starter in 2024 at Washington State, we may not see much of a drop with Hawkins (a talented former blue-chip recruit) starting.

Mississippi State (+14.5) at Texas A&M: Don’t panic about the Texas A&M offense. Auburn may have the best defense in college football.

The bigger issue is the Texas A&M defense, which was assaulted by a Notre Dame offense still figuring it out with a first-year starter at quarterback. The Irish had chunk plays in both the run and pass games.

Mississippi State is a more efficient offense with QB Blake Shapen, and at this point, more dangerous. But let’s see what happens when Mississippi State takes its show on the road in a game of significance (sorry, Southern Miss).

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: SEC football predictions: Arch Manning, Diego Pavia, DJ Lagway in gut-check games

Reporting by Matt Hayes, USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY

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