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Is Penn State out of the playoffs? Explaining Nittany Lions' CFP chances after upset loss to UCLA

It’s only the first weekend in October, yet the College Football Playoff is already on the minds of fans. Every loss feels like it dramatically shifts CFP odds, though technically, an early loss is easier to recover from than one later in the season.

The CFP has expanded to 12 teams in its latest format, but back when it was four teams, even one or two losses could end a team’s playoff hopes, depending on the circumstances. With the new system, we’re still figuring out when the warning sirens should sound, but two losses in the first half of the season at least puts a team on thin ice.

Penn State opened the season with three straight wins, then hosted Oregon at home

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