Alberta is preparing to hold a referendum on secession, a move influenced by Quebec's past experiences. The province's government, led by Premier Danielle Smith, has enacted legislation that allows citizens to initiate referenda if enough voters sign a petition. While Smith's administration is not directly calling for the referendum, the law change facilitates the process for citizen groups to pursue it.

Smith, a strong supporter of Canada, may be attempting to appease the secessionist faction within her political base. She likely believes that a defeat in the referendum would diminish their influence and maintain Alberta's negotiating power with the federal government. However, historical precedents, particularly Quebec's experience, suggest that this strategy may backfire.

In Quebec, the 1980 referendum on sovereignty-association, led by Premier René Lévesque, serves as a cautionary tale. The referendum question was ambiguous, but it ultimately asked whether Quebecers wanted to remain part of Canada. A victory for the independence movement would have significantly boosted its momentum. Instead, the proposal was overwhelmingly rejected, with about 60% of voters choosing "No."

Following this defeat, then-Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau recognized that Quebec had undermined its own bargaining position. The vote clarified Quebecers' commitment to Canada, removing any uncertainty about their intentions. This shift allowed Trudeau to pursue constitutional reforms that would not have been possible had Quebec maintained its bargaining power.

The constitutional changes of 1982, which included the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and an amending formula without a Quebec veto, were direct consequences of Quebec's referendum loss. Had Quebec's demands been presented before the referendum, they might have been accepted by the rest of Canada. Instead, the defeat emboldened other provinces to reject Quebec's aspirations.

As Alberta moves forward with its potential referendum, the lessons from Quebec's past may serve as a warning. A similar outcome could weaken Alberta's position in negotiations with Ottawa, rather than strengthen it as Smith may hope. The stakes are high, and the implications of a referendum could reshape Alberta's relationship with the federal government for years to come.